If the Bank of Canada holds its policy rate at 2.25% on October 28, 2026, variable mortgage rates in Edmonton should stay where they are, with big-bank prime at 4.45%. If the Bank raises the rate by 0.25 points, prime would be expected to move to 4.70% and variable payments or interest costs would follow. Fixed rates are a different story — they follow bond yields, not the Bank’s announcement directly.

The Bank has held at 2.25% through seven consecutive decisions, most recently on September 2, 2026. The October 28 decision comes with a Monetary Policy Report, and forecasters are split between another hold and a hike, so this is a week to have a plan for both outcomes. See the Reuters poll that flipped to a hike in the final week, and Oxford versus C.D. Howe: the two cases, side by side.

What is the Bank of Canada deciding on October 28?

The Bank sets the policy interest rate, which influences what lenders charge for variable-rate mortgages and lines of credit. The current rate is 2.25%, set in October 2025, and big-bank prime sits at 4.45% — prime is the policy rate plus 2.20 points.

Inflation is part of the tension. Consumer prices rose 3.1% in September 2026, up from 3.0% in August — above the Bank’s 2% target, but still inside its 1% to 3% control range, at the top end.

What happens to a variable-rate mortgage if the Bank holds?

Nothing changes on the rate itself. Prime stays at 4.45%, your variable rate stays the same, and your payment or amortization continues as it is now.

A hold is still useful information. It gives borrowers renewing this fall a clearer window to compare staying variable against locking into a fixed rate, without a deadline created by the announcement itself. Start that comparison with a Mortgage Renewal Check rather than waiting for your lender’s renewal letter.

What happens if the Bank raises the rate by 0.25 points?

Variable rates move with prime. A 0.25-point hike would be expected to lift prime from 4.45% to 4.70%, and lenders typically adjust their variable rates by the same amount.

On an adjustable-rate mortgage, the payment rises. On a variable mortgage with a fixed payment, more of each payment goes to interest and the amortization stretches instead. Either way, the change usually takes effect quickly after the decision — this is not a slow, distant adjustment.

“We had an excellent experience working with Travis as both our realtor and mortgage broker… professional, knowledgeable, patient.” — Sheri Tian, Google review

Why do fixed mortgage rates not simply follow the Bank?

Fixed rates follow bond yields, especially the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, which was 3.54% on October 16, 2026. When bond yields rise, fixed mortgage rates tend to face upward pressure. When yields fall, fixed rates can ease — sometimes even on a day the Bank holds or raises its policy rate. For more on fixed vs variable when the Bank is this unpredictable.

Credit: Crisco 1492, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Should you lock in a rate hold before October 28?

If your renewal, purchase closing, or refinance falls within the next 120 days, yes — ask about a rate hold now. Rate holds usually cost nothing, and many lenders will honour a lower rate if prices fall before you close or renew. See locking a rate hold before the decision.

A hold is protection, not a commitment to that lender or that product. It gives you a ceiling while you keep comparing, which is exactly what you want heading into a split decision. First-time buyers can pair a hold with the steps in the First Home Guide for Edmonton.

Renewing or closing in the next 120 days? Call me at (780) 722-5621 before October 28 and we will get a rate hold in place and walk through what a hold or a hike does to your specific mortgage. Or start with the Pre-Approval & Refinance Check.

By Travis Bannert, Realtor and Mortgage Broker

Travis Bannert, Mortgage Broker | Next Door Mortgages, BFL Dominion Lending Centres | (780) 722-5621 | nextdoormortgages.com