The forecast for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision flipped this week: a Reuters poll of economists conducted October 21-23 found 19 of 34 — 56% — now expect a 25-point hike to 2.50%, after the previous poll had 80% expecting a hold at 2.25% through the end of 2026. Edmonton borrowers with a renewal, closing, or variable mortgage have this weekend to get a rate hold and a two-outcome plan in place before Tuesday’s announcement. See the decision itself, explained for Edmonton borrowers.
What changed the forecast in one week?
The Bank’s own Business Outlook Survey. It showed inflation expectations rising sharply as trade talks with the United States broke down, and Governor Tiff Macklem’s remarks last weekend were widely read as a hint a hike is coming. Desjardins’ Royce Mendes said the survey responses changed both the Governor’s tone and economists’ views: “the survey responses… suggest there are more serious inflationary pressures coming.” Markets moved with them — interest-rate futures went from pricing a roughly 30% chance of an October hike to about three-in-four. September inflation at 3.1%, just above the Bank’s 1-3% target range, and oil touching $117 a barrel on Friday complete the case the hike camp is making. See the earlier Oxford-C.D. Howe split this poll overtook.
What does the poll expect after October?
A short campaign, not a cycle. Sixteen of 29 respondents expect one more hike before March 2027, taking the policy rate to 2.75%, and then a hold — which Reuters noted would be the shortest Bank of Canada tightening campaign in 30 years. The hold camp’s argument is the other half of the data: a weak economy, growth expected at just 1.0% in 2026, and subdued inflation once energy is stripped out. BMO’s Benjamin Reitzes summed up the hike logic: the Bank would rather hike slightly early than fall behind the curve as it did in 2021-22.
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What should Edmonton borrowers do before Tuesday?
If your mortgage renews or your purchase closes within about 120 days, ask for a rate hold now — it costs nothing and caps your exposure whichever way Tuesday goes; start with a Mortgage Renewal Check if your term is ending. If you hold a variable mortgage, know in advance what a 25-point rise does to your payment or your amortization. And remember fixed rates follow bond yields, which have already been repricing on these expectations — waiting for the announcement does not freeze today’s fixed offers. First-time buyers should pair the hold with the steps in the First Home Guide for Edmonton. See why a rate hold is this weekend’s move.
Renewing, closing, or holding a variable rate into Tuesday’s decision? Call me at (780) 722-5621 this weekend and we will run both outcomes on your actual balance before October 28. Or start with the Pre-Approval & Refinance Check.
By Travis Bannert, Realtor and Mortgage Broker
Travis Bannert, Mortgage Broker | Next Door Mortgages, BFL Dominion Lending Centres | (780) 722-5621 | nextdoormortgages.com