This is the mortgage half of this week’s Home and Mortgage Minute. The home half — 357 Greater Edmonton sales, steady prices, and luxury up 15.9% — lives on Bridge Realty Group: https://bridgerealtygroup.ca/blog/edmonton-home-market-minute–week-of-november-9-2026-sales-slowed-to-357-prices-held-luxury-up-159

There was no Bank of Canada decision this week, and that is the news: the policy rate still sits at 2.50% after the October 28 hike, prime is still 4.70%, and the next decision is December 9, 2026. What did move was the bond market — the 5-year Government of Canada yield eased to around 3.3% in the week of November 6, 2026, and fixed rates declined slightly (True North Mortgage, November 6, 2026). Banks, meanwhile, are quietly setting aside more money for potential mortgage losses.

1. Rates hold — and the December 9 odds favour a pause

The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on October 28, 2026, and big-bank prime followed to 4.70% on October 29, 2026. As of November 6, 2026, market pricing put the odds of another 25-basis-point hike on December 9 at 39%, versus 61% for no change (mortgagelogic.news, via True North Mortgage, November 6, 2026). Most major forecasters surveyed as of October 30, 2026 expect the Bank to hold at 2.50% for the rest of 2026 and hike in early 2027, with end-of-2027 forecasts ranging from 2.25% to 3.25%. September inflation was 3.1% (Statistics Canada), and the next CPI reading lands November 16.

What it means for you: Variable and HELOC borrowers — nothing changed this week. Renewing before December 9? You are renewing into a live decision window, so compare offers before you sign, not after.

2. Fixed rates eased slightly as bond yields slipped

Fixed mortgage rates follow the 5-year bond yield, not the Bank’s announcement. True North Mortgage reported on November 6, 2026 that the 5-year yield had eased to around 3.3% after the U.S. midterms and a drop in oil prices, and that fixed rates have declined slightly. That is a small move, not a trend — yields were close to 3.49% at the start of November (Ratellow, November 4, 2026) and can move either way before December 9.

What it means for you: If you are buying or renewing in the next 90–120 days, a rate hold protects you if yields climb again, and it costs nothing to ask for one. Rates are negotiable — the rate you are first offered is rarely the best rate available to you, so always ask what else you qualify for.

Run your numbers: https://nextdoormortgages.com/pre-approval-refinance-check/

3. Banks are provisioning more for losses — Edmonton arrears still fell

Canadian Mortgage Trends reported on November 4, 2026, from CMHC’s Fall 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report, that the median bank expected-credit-loss allowance rose to 0.149% of residential mortgage balances in the second quarter of 2026 — about $149 per $100,000 — up from 0.132% a year earlier, with 76% of banks reporting higher expected losses. The stress remains regional: CMHC put Ontario’s 90-day arrears at 0.32% in Q2 2026, up from 0.21% a year earlier, and expects Ontario arrears to rise through mid-2027. In Q2 2026, arrears fell in Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina. Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey for October 2026, released November 6, 2026, showed Alberta employment down 24,000 in the month (offsetting September’s 23,000 gain) with unemployment at 7.3%, while Alberta employment remained up 41,000 (+1.6%) year over year.

What it means for you: The national stress headline is still not Edmonton’s story — but lenders are pricing in more caution, which makes a clean, early renewal application worth more than it did last year.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bank of Canada policy rate today?

2.50%, set on October 28, 2026. The next decision is December 9, 2026, and big-bank prime is 4.70%.

Did mortgage rates change this week?

Variable rates did not change — prime held at 4.70%. Fixed rates declined slightly as the 5-year bond yield eased to around 3.3% in the week of November 6, 2026 (True North Mortgage).

Are mortgage arrears rising in Edmonton?

No. CMHC’s Fall 2026 report shows arrears fell in Edmonton in Q2 2026, while Ontario’s rose to 0.32% and is expected to keep rising through mid-2027.

Should I renew before the December 9 Bank of Canada decision?

If your renewal falls in the next few months, compare offers now and consider a rate hold — you can decide before or after December 9 with real numbers in hand instead of guessing.

Run your numbers before December 9: start with the Pre-Approval & Refinance Check: https://nextdoormortgages.com/pre-approval-refinance-check/

By Travis Bannert, Realtor and Mortgage Broker — 780-720-8240