Tomorrow morning — Wednesday, October 28, at 9:45 AM ET (7:45 AM in Edmonton) — the Bank of Canada announces its policy rate alongside its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, and the two mortgage types will feel it completely differently. If the Bank hikes 25 basis points from 2.25% to 2.50%, prime at most lenders moves from 4.45% to about 4.70% within days, and adjustable-payment variable mortgages rise by roughly $13 a month per $100,000 owed. Fixed rates do not move on the announcement at all — they follow Government of Canada bond yields, which repriced weeks ago while markets were deciding this hike was likely.

Where expectations stand tonight
Forecasters end the eve genuinely split on the call but leaning hike. In the Reuters poll of October 21–23, 19 of 34 economists (56%) expected a hike to 2.50% — the first increase since July 2023 — with another by end-March. Market pricing went further: reporting on October 26 put swaps at roughly three-in-four odds of a hike, with Bloomberg data at 87%. Against that, the C.D. Howe Monetary Policy Council voted 6–1 to recommend a hold at 2.25%. September inflation at 3.1% and sharply rising business inflation expectations are the hike case; weak growth is the hold case. Nobody honest is certain — plan for both, panic about neither.
If you hold a variable or a HELOC
An adjustable-payment variable rises automatically when prime moves. A fixed-payment variable keeps its payment but sends more of it to interest — check your trigger rate if the balance is drifting the wrong way. HELOCs are priced off prime and reprice the same way. Nothing needs to be done tonight; what matters is knowing which of the three structures you actually hold, which is in your mortgage statement, not your memory. My explainer on fixed vs variable mortgages covers the penalty and flexibility differences if tomorrow has you reconsidering the structure itself.
“Travis explained what the rate news actually meant for our renewal in plain language, and got our hold in place before the announcement.” — Google review excerpt
If you are renewing, buying, or holding a rate hold
Fixed pricing for new mortgages is set off bond yields, and yields already moved on the expectation of this decision — so a hike tomorrow does not automatically make fixed rates worse, and a hold does not automatically make them better. What protects you is a rate hold: it locks today’s fixed pricing for a set window while you decide, and if pricing drops before you fund, you get the lower rate. If your renewal or possession falls in the next few months, the hold is the only move that helps under both outcomes. Start it through the Pre-Approval & Refinance Check — before the announcement, not after your lender’s first renewal letter arrives.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the Bank of Canada decision on October 28, 2026?
The decision is announced at 9:45 AM Eastern Time — 7:45 AM in Edmonton — together with the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, followed by a press conference.
If the Bank of Canada hikes, when does my variable payment change?
Lenders typically adjust prime within a few business days of the announcement. Adjustable-payment variables then change at the next payment adjustment; fixed-payment variables keep the same payment but allocate more of it to interest.
Do fixed mortgage rates change the day of a Bank of Canada decision?
Not directly. Fixed rates are priced from Government of Canada bond yields, which move with market expectations — they largely repriced in the weeks before this decision, as traders came to expect a hike.
Should I lock in before the decision?
A rate hold gives you the protection without the commitment: today’s pricing is held, and you still benefit if rates fall before funding. Converting an existing variable mid-term is a bigger decision — run the penalty and the remaining term before acting on announcement-day nerves.
Renewing or buying in the next few months and want tonight’s position checked before 7:45 AM? Call (780 720-82401 — I will try to call you this week, or reply with a good time and we will set a phone appointment to review your hold, your renewal date and which structure you actually hold.
By Travis Bannert, Realtor and Mortgage Broker
Travis Bannert, Mortgage Broker | Next Door Mortgages, BFL Dominion Lending Centres | (780) 720-8240 | nextdoormortgages.com





